Britain is on course to ending up being a '2nd tier' European nation like Spain or Italy due to financial decrease and a weak military that undermines its effectiveness to allies, a professional has alerted.

Research professor Dr Azeem Ibrahim OBE concluded in a damning new report that the U.K. has actually been paralysed by low financial investment, high tax and misguided policies that could see it lose its standing as a top-tier middle power at existing growth rates.

The plain evaluation weighed that succeeding federal government failures in regulation and drawing in investment had actually caused Britain to lose out on the 'industries of the future' courted by developed economies.

'Britain no longer has the industrial base to logistically sustain a war with a near-peer like Russia for more than two months,' he composed in The Henry Jackson Society's newest report, Strategic Prosperity: The Case for Economic Growth as a National Security Priority.

The report assesses that Britain is now on track to fall behind Poland in regards to per capita earnings by 2030, and that the main European country's armed force will quickly exceed the U.K.'s along lines of both workforce and devices on the present trajectory.

'The issue is that as soon as we are reduced to a second tier middle power, it's going to be practically impossible to return. Nations don't return from this,' Dr Ibrahim told MailOnline today.

'This is going to be sped up decrease unless we nip this in the bud and have strong leaders who have the ability to make the tough choices today.'

People pass boarded up shops on March 20, 2024 in Hastings, England

A British soldier reloads his rifle on February 17, 2025 in Smardan, Romania

Staff Sergeant Rai uses a radio to talk to Archer crews from 19th Regiment Royal Artillery throughout a live fire variety on Rovajärvi Training Area, during Exercise Dynamic Front, Finland

Dr Ibrahim invited the government's decision to increase defence costs to 2.5% of GDP from April 2027, but alerted much deeper, systemic problems threaten to irreversibly knock the U.K. from its position as a globally prominent power.

With a weakening commercial base, Britain's effectiveness to its allies is now 'falling behind even second-tier European powers', he alerted.

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'Not only is the U.K. anticipated to have a lower GDP per capita than Poland by 2030, but likewise a smaller sized army and one that is unable to sustain release at scale.'

This is of particular concern at a time of heightened geopolitical tension, with Britain pegged to be amongst the leading forces in Europe's quick rearmament job.

'There are 230 brigades in Ukraine today, Russian and Ukrainian. Not a single European nation to install a single heavy armoured brigade.'

'This is a massive oversight on the part of subsequent federal governments, not just Starmer's problem, of failing to invest in our military and basically contracting out security to the United States and NATO,' he told MailOnline.

'With the U.S. getting fatigue of supplying the security umbrella to Europe, Europe now has to base on its own and the U.K. would have been in a premium position to really lead European defence. But none of the European nations are.'

Slowed defence spending and patterns of low performance are absolutely nothing brand-new. But Britain is now also 'stopping working to change' to the shock to the rules-based worldwide order, said Dr Ibrahim.

The former advisor to the 2021 Integrated Defence and Security Review kept in mind in the report that in spite of the 'weakening' of the institutions as soon as 'secured' by the U.S., Britain is reacting by harming the last vestiges of its military may and economic power.

The U.K., he stated, 'seems to be making increasingly pricey gestures' like the ₤ 9bn handover of the tactical Chagos Islands and opening talks on reparations for Caribbean Slavery.

The surrender of the Chagos Islands in the Indian Ocean has been the source of much analysis.

Negotiations between the U.K. and Mauritius were begun by the Tories in 2022, but an arrangement was revealed by the Labour government last October.

Dr Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute defence and security believe thank warned at the time that 'the relocation demonstrates stressing tactical ineptitude in a world that the U.K. federal government refers to as being characterised by excellent power competition'.

Require the U.K. to supply reparations for its historic role in the slave trade were revived likewise in October last year, though Sir Keir Starmer stated ahead of a conference of Commonwealth nations that reparations would not be on the program.

A Challenger 2 main battle tank of the British forces during the NATO's Spring Storm workout in Kilingi-Nomme, Estonia, Wednesday, May 15, 2024

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk speak during a press conference in Warsaw, Poland, January 17, 2025

Dr Ibhramin assessed that the U.K. appears to be acting versus its own security interests in part due to a narrow understanding of threat.

'We comprehend soldiers and missiles but stop working to completely develop of the danger that having no option to China's supply chains might have on our ability to respond to military hostility.'

He recommended a new security model to 'enhance the U.K.'s strategic dynamism' based on a rethink of migratory policy and danger evaluation, access to rare earth minerals in a market controlled by China, and the prioritisation of energy security and independence by means of investment in North Sea gas and a long-overdue rethink on nuclear energy.

'Without instant policy modifications to reignite growth, Britain will become a diminished power, reliant on stronger allies and susceptible to foreign coercion,' the Diplomacy writer said.

'As international financial competitors intensifies, the U.K. should decide whether to accept a strong growth program or resign itself to irreparable decrease.'

Britain's dedication to the idea of Net Zero may be laudable, but the pursuit will inhibit growth and unknown tactical goals, he warned.

'I am not saying that the environment is trivial. But we simply can not pay for to do this.

'We are a nation that has actually failed to purchase our economic, in our energy facilities. And we have significant resources at our disposal.'

Nuclear power, including using small modular reactors, might be a boon for the British economy and energy independence.

'But we have actually stopped working to commercialise them and clearly that's going to take a substantial amount of time.'

Britain did introduce a new funding model for nuclear power stations in 2022, which lobbyists consisting of Labour politicians had insisted was key to discovering the cash for expensive plant-building jobs.

While Innovate UK, Britain's innovation firm, has been declared for its grants for small energy-producing business at home, business owners have actually warned a wider culture of 'threat hostility' in the U.K. stifles investment.

In 2022, incomes for the poorest 14 million individuals fell by 7.5%, per the ONS. Pictured: Waterlooville High Street, Waterlooville, Hants

Undated file picture of The British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT) or Chagos Islands

Britain has consistently failed to acknowledge the looming 'authoritarian danger', permitting the pattern of handled decline.

But the revival of autocracies on the world stage dangers further undermining the rules-based worldwide order from which Britain 'benefits tremendously' as a globalised economy.

'The threat to this order ... has actually established partly due to the fact that of the absence of a robust will to defend it, owing in part to deliberate foreign attempts to overturn the acknowledgment of the real prowling threat they present.'

The Trump administration's alerting to NATO allies in Europe that they will need to do their own bidding has gone some method towards waking Britain as much as the urgency of purchasing defence.

But Dr Ibrahim warned that this is not enough. He advised a top-down reform of 'essentially our whole state' to bring the ossified state back to life and sustain it.

'Reforming the well-being state, reforming the NHS, reforming pensions - these are basically bodies that take up enormous quantities of funds and they'll simply keep growing considerably,' he told MailOnline.

'You could double the NHS budget and it will really not make much of a damage. So all of this will require basic reform and will take a lot of nerve from whomever is in power due to the fact that it will make them out of favor.'

The report describes recommendations in extreme tax reform, pro-growth immigration policies, and a renewed concentrate on protecting Britain's role as a leader in high-tech industries, energy security, and international trade.

Vladimir Putin consults with the guv of Arkhangelsk region Alexander Tsybulsky throughout their meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Tuesday, March 11, 2025

File photo. Britain's financial stagnancy might see it quickly become a '2nd tier' partner

Boarded-up stores in Blackpool as more than 13,000 shops closed their doors for great in 2024

Britain is not alone in falling behind. The Trump administration's insistence that Europe spend for its own defence has actually cast fresh light on the Old Continent's dire scenario after years of slow development and decreased costs.

The Centre for Economic Policy Research examined at the end of in 2015 that Euro location economic efficiency has been 'controlled' since around 2018, illustrating 'diverse difficulties of energy dependence, producing vulnerabilities, and shifting worldwide trade dynamics'.

There remain extensive discrepancies in between European economies; German deindustrialisation has hit organizations hard and forced redundancies, while Spain has grown in line with its tourism-focused economy.

This stays vulnerable, however, with residents significantly upset by the perceived pandering to foreign visitors as they are evaluated of affordable accommodation and trapped in low paying seasonal tasks.

The Henry Jackson Society is a diplomacy and national security think thank based in the UK.

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